中国城市住房公积金系统的绩效差异及与住房可支付力的关系

上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院/中国城市治理研究院陈杰教授和美国密歇根大学邓岚副教授、博士生Yan Xiang共同合作在住房研究领域权威期刊Housing Studies近期在线发表论文Housing Affordability, Subsidized Lending and Cross-City Variation in the Performance of China’s Housing Provident Fund Program。这篇研究论文是国际期刊少数几篇研究中国住房公积金制度的文章之一，也是国际上第一篇在城市层面实证研究住房公积金制度绩效及与居民住房可支付能力之间关系的文章。Housing Studies是城市研究类SSCI期刊，2019年影响因子2.255。

文献目录信息：

Deng, Lan, Xiang Yan, and Jie Chen. 2020. “Housing Affordability, Subsidized Lending and Cross-City Variation in the Performance of China’s Housing Provident Fund Program.” Housing Studies: 1–24. Doi: 10.1080/02673037.2019.1585521 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2019.1585521.

概要：这项研究考察了中国住房公积金系统在城市间的绩效差异。研究发现，虽然整个系统在参与性和获益性方面都受到限制，但不同地区的公积金系统资金活跃程度和利用率有很大差别。基于7个城市的住房公积金贷款进行的面板数据分析显示，当地住房支付能力是住房公积金缴存者中哪些人能从该系统中受益的重要决定因素。房价上涨增加了对住房公积金贷款的需求，但如果房价相对于家庭收入上涨太高，使用住房公积金贷款在缴存者中所占比例就会下降。这表明，就该系统目前的运作模式而言，扩大住房公积金的覆盖面只会增加收益分配的不平等性。最后，我们并没有发现住房公积金贷款的发放与银行住房按揭贷款之间存在反周期对冲效应的证据。这些发现对住房公积金制度未来的改革具有重要启示意义。

Abstract: This study examines the cross-city variation in the performance of China’s Housing Provident Fund (HPF) program, a collective saving scheme that provides subsidized lending to support participants’ home purchases. It finds that while the program as a whole is limited in both participation and benefit provision, the level of HPF activities has differed across localities. Panel-data analysis of HPF lending in seven cities reveals that local housing affordability was an important determinant of who benefited from the program. Rising housing price increased the demand for HPF loans. But if price rose too high relative to household income, the share of participants who used HPF loans declined. This shows that as the program currently operates, expanding HPF participation would only increase the inequality in the distribution of program benefits. Finally, we did not find evidence for the counter-cyclic effects that HPF lending was expected to have in relation to bank lending. These findings have important implications for the program’s future reform.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2019.1585521.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332442940_Housing_affordability_subsidized_lending_and_cross-city_variation_in_the_performance_of_China's_housing_provident_fund_program